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 Všeobecné téma

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karkulka
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Poeet p?íspivku : 47
Registration date : 04. 09. 07

PříspěvekPředmět: Re: Všeobecné téma   Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:35 am

Dovoluji si překopírovat jednu myšlenku ohledně úlohy komodit od citi. V krátkosti česky - Ceny komodity se historicky odvíjely od ekonomického cyklu a fyzické nabídky a poptávky. Díky všemožným derivátům se ovšem stávají čím dál tím víc finančním investičním aktivem, které maji ovšem i jiné faktory pohybu cen. Toto může vysvětlovat nadprůměrný růst cen komodit obecně v posledních letech, opět se specifickými - v aktuální situaci dost nepříznivými - dopady na spotřebu a ekonomiku (jde o jediné aktivum, z jehož růstu US consumer neprofituje). Více v AJ:

" So what environment does this picture paint?
• In addition to the above the world is now dealing with an entirely new phenomenon in this cycle to the past
cycles of the last 25 years. Commodities now trade firmly as an asset class and in a lot of instances have
ETF structures to facilitate trading them. This is a big departure because it can throw a lot of conventional
wisdom out the window

• Firstly in the past commodities would generally trade to the economic cycle with some fluctuations on events
and speculative trading. As an asset class the dynamic is potentially very different because you end up with
asset allocations creating a “buy and hold” mentality

• This creates a big challenge for central banks and consumers. Why? If commodities are trading higher
because of their “asset class” tag more than the underlying supply/demand scenario the argument has to be
that they form more of a fiscal tightening picture than an inflationary picture. (Imagine a country raising taxes
across a whole swathe of items thereby driving the prices higher and then reacting by tightening monetary
policy to compensate for the price rises- One sure way to destroy an economy.) For consumers it is even
worse. In general a bull market in asset prices supports consumer wealth. The 3 “consumer asset markets”
are essentially Housing, Fixed income, and equities. Look at the present dynamic (U.S. in particular).
o Housing is in the throes of a painful correction after a 15 year bull market that at this point shows
little signs of a stabilisation let alone a turn.
o Fixed income markets have rallied recently but because of tighter credit conditions are providing
little relief to a consumer already massively stretched by the credit boom of the last 25 years fuelled
by the “Greenspan put” trying to mitigate the normal business cycle swings. In addition as we noted
above we think a painful squeeze in the weeks ahead could drive short-term yields higher as long
term yields have already backed up sharply in recent weeks.
o Equities while trying to stabilise continue to look relatively anaemic at best.

• If on top of this commodities continue to rally the consumer is going to be hit on all sides. Commodities are
the only asset class where a bull market “draws from” rather than “adds to” the feeling of wealth for the
consumer. This is unlikely to change for a long time until/if we were to get to a point where consumer
investments would become more exposed to commodities as a “hedge” (Which would of course drag
commodities even higher)

So here is what we think is going to happen:
�� We think commodities in general look to be starting the next surging run higher in their bull
market
�� We think this will bring all the Central bank hawks back out of the “mothballs”
�� In the near term this will push short-term yields higher and likely flatten the US. Curve

We think this is the worst of all worlds and can likely create financial market and economic concerns in the
months ahead that could create a whole new phase of market turmoil.
We have seen nothing in the financial or economic backdrop that suggests that developments such as this
can be a precursor to anything good. "

Když se člověk zamyslí, nejde o žádnou převratně novou mýšlenku. Ale i já jsem si při čtení textu uvědomil, že přistupuji ke spekulacím v komoditách stále "po staru" (a už to můj účet párkrát i zabolelo:)
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karkulka
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Poeet p?íspivku : 47
Registration date : 04. 09. 07

PříspěvekPředmět: Re: Všeobecné téma   Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:50 pm

Pokracovani k minulemu prispevku. Berte na vedomi, ze kluci, co to psali jsou rizi technici a neresi, kolik benzinu bude spotrebovavat US consumer v lete... preberte si to jak chcete, i ja povazuji nektere jejich projekce za dost ulitle:)



Ted vynecham par odstavcu s mene ci jeste mene uveritelnejma cilovkama vybranych komodit a prekopiruji zaver (castecne replikuici predchozi, tyden stary prispevek, ale wording je misty docela zabavnej) Smile

Despite this the picture here suggests to us that we are looking at very strong momentum across the board whether it
is energy, softs, industrial metals and precious metals that suggests continued gains. If so we have a few thoughts.
• This comes at a time when we look to have a renewed bear market for the USD across the board (Zimbabwe a
notable exception….sorry Bobby M.) As a consequence whether G10 or EM we believe that the currencies that
can do really well here are those that are part of the Commodity supply chain and those that might lag are those
that are part of the demand chain. The greatest difficulty will come for those countries that restrain the strength of
their currencies against the USD as that will bring elevated difficulties on the inflation side (Particularly
manufacturing economies that are big commodity importers- How is that China stock market looking?????? –
see page 47)
• Of course the place that will suffer the most is the U.S.A. At a time when housing, the economy, the credit
markets and potentially Equities are all under stress we may be looking at a rapid rise in the only asset market
that reduces the consumer discretionary income rather than supplements it (As a rally in debt, Equity and
housing markets tend to)
• In addition guess what… the U.S. cannot allow the USD to strengthen against the USD to mitigate the restraining
effects of the rise in commodities versus the USD like other countries can.
• Bottom line we look to b moving into the stage where people are once again seeing that the highest level of
concern rests with the U.S.. as a consequence this looks likely to reignite a backdrop of lower U.S. yields, lower
spreads vis a vis other G10 countries, a weaker USD and likely a weaker Equity market.
• While everything they can think of on a fiscal and monetary basis will likely be thrown against the wall to mitigate
this the increasing concern is that nothing looks to be sticking.
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